Russian President Putin had barely announced the ban on imports of a number of Western foods, as the first Western “experts” spoke out, who wanted to see in this decision an ill-considered defiant reaction from Moscow, which in the end would primarily affect Russian consumers. However, this could turn out to be a dangerous misjudgment. In order to better understand what the masters in the Kremlin really have, one should for a moment put one’s mindset into the mindset of a chess player.

Vladimir Putin has proven on several occasions in the past that he is inspired by the royal game in his thinking and actions. For example, the exchange of office between him and Dmitry Medvedev can be described as a “political rochade”. However, anyone who wants to take the initiative in the 64 fields must be prepared to make far-reaching sacrifices. In a so-called “Gambit”, one of the players offers a character to his opponent. For this, the victim receives a number of benefits that more than compensate for the temporary loss. The increase in Crimea as a new Russian territory in itself exceeds the sanctions imposed by the West. Moreover, this move has silenced many Russian Critics of Putin. They are finding it increasingly difficult to ignore the geopolitical games of the US and the EU in Ukraine, and thus the threat to the immediate Russian sphere of hegemony.

Russian Founding Period

Russia has never been as united as it has been since the “Great Patriotic War” against Hitler’s Germany. It is precisely this motivating enemy that offers Putin the historic opportunity to launch one of the largest investment programs in Russian history. However, without the participation of Western corporations. The winners could be Japanese, Chinese and Indian engineers who exchange “raw materials for knowledge and technology” in close cooperation with Russian companies. The countries that are remarkably frequented by Putin and Russian leaders. Their competitive advantages over Western companies, built with Russian help, would do much greater damage in the long run than the short-term sacrifices that the Russian population has for giving up German milk and butter. In the agricultural sector, Latin American and African countries have long waited for an opportunity to displace Western brands. The nationwide renunciation of Western imported goods acts like glucose for a new collective memory.

For U.S. companies, the sanctions may be barely noticeable. The “Cold War 2.0” against Moscow, as well as the AMERICAN IT industry, which was proclaimed under the Obama administration, has already led to a noticeable rethink of Russian B2C and B2B customers. The main losers of a trade war, the lowest escalation stage of which we are currently experiencing, will be European and especially German suppliers, who will be able to willingly follow the US sanctions proposals and thereby abandon a strategic growth market and the billions already made. Washington can already rejoice in a successful proxy war that Europe is waging for the US.

In March, the German chancellor’s Bild newspaper recommended six things that really hurt Russia. The proposed “removal of the World Cup” as a form of sporting boycott would finally make FIFA explode. Under item six national retaliation, Russian supply contracts should be terminated and their luck sought in Norway. In addition, there are strategic gas reserves filled to the brim. Such a change of strategy would require an act of strength that would amount to a second energy transition. Moreover, a number of European states that do not move in the German comfort zone would commit an energy-political suicide without Russian natural gas.

At the latest, when Kiev will take its financial oath of revelation to the ECB, the Ukrainian people will see whether they can expect more support from the European or Russian side. This could be before next winter.

As soon as the first economically painful losses from the Russian gambits in Europe – especially in France and Poland – are felt, the willingness to pay for the sovereign debt in Kiev will decline. In addition to old debts of 40 billion dollars, rating agencies are calculating a further 49 billion dollars of new debt by 2018.